In the aftermath of significant allegations of antisemitism within the Labour Party, Keir Starmer has sought to distance the party from the antisemitic rhetoric under Jeremy Corbyn. Following Israelโs ground invasion of Gaza, Labourโs position on the issue cost them the Rochdale by-election and is expected to cause some electoral damage on Thursday.
This article looks at the specifics of Labourโs policy on Gaza and also explores what a Labour governmentโs foreign policy agenda is likely to look like in the region, should they form the next UK Government.
โAn Immediate Ceasefireโ
Following the October 7 attack, Labourโs rhetoric initially focused on sending humanitarian aid to Gaza, maintaining corridors for refugees, and emphasising that โCivilians must not be targetedโ by Israel, whilst at the same time supporting a conclusion to the conflict which sees โthe threat of Hamas removedโ. With Labour now calling for an immediate ceasefire, one which is likely to leave a Hamas-administered Gaza in place following the war, the Labour position appears to have shifted significantly.
Such a move is unlikely to isolate the UK internationally. Keir Starmerโs wording of an โImmediate Ceasefireโ is wording that is supported by Bidenโs ceasefire plan which passed through the security council last month. The US-backed ceasefire plan is overwhelmingly supported by western governments.
This position, however, differs only in rhetoric from that of the current government. Whilst initially critical of Labourโs call for an โimmediate ceasefireโ in February, Sunak has since come around to reluctant support of Bidenโs proposed ceasefire, whilst describing it as โnot a good dealโ. Disregarding spin, itโs hard to identify practical differences between labour and the conservatives, with both in effect supporting the same immediate ceasefire proposal.
Recognising of the ‘State of Palestine‘?
In June, Labourโs manifesto committed to โrecognising a Palestinian state as a contribution to a renewed peace processโ, continuing a pledge which had been made in every Labour Manifesto since Ed Milibandโs. Both major parties have officially upheld a two-state solution as the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the UK has exercised non-accredited relations with the Palestinian Authority since 1993. However, the UK has never officially recognised the State of Palestine as a state.
The foreign relations of the โState of Palestineโ are controlled by the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority, which recognises Israel within its pre-1967 borders. As of July 2024, 137 UN member states recognise both the State of Israel and the State of Palestine.
Would this change in policy have any real effect on the ground? Since October 7, nine states have recognised Palestine, including Spain, Norway and Ireland. The addition of a state with such strong ties to Israel is likely to build momentum for further bilateral recognition. From a multilateral perspective, with the UNSC vote on Palestinian UN membership in May, the UK and the US remain the only permanent members of the Security Council to not support Palestinian UN Membership. The loss of the UK as an abstainer would make the United States completely alone.
It is unclear, however, when and how formal diplomatic relations will be established. According to the Times, a source close to Keir Starmer has clarified that the Labour Party would wait for โthe right timeโ to recognise Palestine, doing so in co-operation with allies such as the United States as part of a broader peace settlement.
As opposed to the Labour Partyโs moderation on other issues, which are influenced by electoral concerns, Labourโs stripping back of Palestinian recognition is arguably driven by fears of a diplomatic rift with the United States. It therefore seems unlikely that a Labour Government would be able to move to the left on this issue after the election as has been speculated with other Labour policies.
The Labour Party seems to echo the words of Foreign Secretary David Cameron, who suggested that the British recognition of Palestine should be done in conjunction with allies as part of a postwar Israeli-Hamas peace deal.
Final Thought
In many respects, the position of the Labour Party on Gaza seems to differ only mildly from that of the current government.
However, despite the similarity between the outward content of Labour and Conservative statements, a labour government may be more willing to act on them. Labour have codified their commitment to both an immediate ceasefire and recognition in their manifesto. A commitment to certain foreign policy objectives is a part of their mandate to govern. The Conservatives, on the other hand, have frequently and explicitly signaled their reluctance on these measures to the electorate.
For more of Curiaโs foreign policy analysis, please click here.
This article was written by Alex Connor, Chamber’s features writer.