As the United States gears up for its pivotal election on November 5, 2024, the stakes have never been higher—not just for America, but for the UK and its longstanding special relationship with the US. The potential outcomes, particularly the contrasting leadership styles of a possible second Trump presidency versus a Kamala Harris administration, raise critical questions about the future of international relations, trade, and shared democratic values.
How might decisions made in the Oval Office reverberate across the Atlantic?
A Brief History of US Elections: The Good, The Bad, and The Unexpected
The US president, elected every four years through an Electoral College system, wields significant influence over domestic legislation and foreign policy, often in partnership with Congress. In recent elections, we’ve seen an alarming polarisation in American society, notably around issues such as women’s rights and economic policy. Trump’s shocking victory in 2016 left many British leaders grappling with the implications of a leader who seemingly disregarded established norms.
As current Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s hopes of meeting Kamala Harris before the US presidential election have faded, he did manage to secure a meeting with opposition leader Donald Trump back in September. Whilst Starmer made no comment on this meeting, former British prime minister, Theresa May, reflected on her correspondences with the Republican leader remarking ‘he was an American president like no other’.
So, if he were to reclaim the presidency, what kind of shockwaves might we expect this time around? Would we see a resurgence of his controversial policies, further polarisation within US society, or even shifts in the global balance of power? The stakes have never been higher, and the world watches closely, anticipating how November 5th will unfold.
A New Era or a Troubling Repeat?
The outcome of the 2024 election could reshape UK foreign policy and national security in a number of ways.
1. US Foreign Policy and Alliances: The Sceptre of Isolationism
With Trump’s penchant for isolationism and scepticism toward NATO, what happens to the UK’s security strategy if he returns to power? His potential withdrawal from military commitments could leave the UK in a precarious position, necessitating a swift revaluation of its own defence policies. This could involve increasing military expenditure, exploring new defence partnerships, or enhancing its own independent capabilities.
2. Trade Opportunities: The Dream of a ‘Trade Deal of the Century’
The UK has sought a free trade agreement with the US since Brexit, but negotiations have been fraught with obstacles. Could a Trump presidency reignite protectionist policies that hinder trade?
His “America First” doctrine could lead to increased tariffs and trade barriers, particularly impacting UK sectors like automotive and agriculture. Trump’s past threats to impose tariffs on UK car imports and demands for stricter food standards highlight the risks for British exporters.
Conversely, a Harris administration is likely to prioritise domestic issues, such as infrastructure and healthcare, potentially sidelining bilateral trade talks with the UK. While she may engage in international discussions, the focus would likely shift toward multilateral agreements, making the ambitious “trade deal of the century” increasingly difficult for the UK to secure.
Socio-Political Ramifications: A Divided House
The political climate in the UK is increasingly intertwined with developments in the US. A Trump victory might exacerbate ideological divides within British society, particularly regarding issues like women’s rights and democratic integrity. Trump’s repeated claims of election fraud and his refusal to accept the results of the 2020 election have raised questions about democratic norms. This behaviour could inspire similar rhetoric in the UK, where far-right movements have gained traction in more recent years.
Insights from Baroness Barker’s Book Club: Perspectives from the Frontlines
More recently, Curia’s Foreign Policy and Defence Research Group hosted the first session of Baroness Liz Barker’s online book club, with guests Rt Hon Sir Robert Buckland KBE KC, former Lord Chancellor and Chair of the Buckland Review of Autism Employment and Curia’s Industrial Strategy Research Group, and Paula Sheriff, former Shadow Minister for Women and Equalities and Chair of Curia’s Industrial Strategy Research Group.
Buckland highlighted the precarious nature of the election, emphasising the momentum that Democrats seem to be building while cautioning that domestic issues are pivotal. He pointed to the stark gender divide in political support, particularly regarding women’s rights.
Sherriff echoed her concerns over the narrowing of the polls and surge of Trump voters. With the potential for delayed results and the impact on women’s rights globally, she posed an urgent question: What message would a Trump presidency send to the world, especially as a ‘convicted criminal’?
Several books were recommended by the panel to gain better insight the US political landscape, click here to watch the entire webinar and book recommendations.
Final Thought
As the world watches with bated breath, the upcoming US election represents a defining moment not just for America, but for the UK and its longstanding special relationship with the United States.
Whether the victor is Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, the implications will reverberate across the Atlantic, shaping foreign policy, trade negotiations, and societal values. With the stakes so high, the choices made in Washington will undoubtedly influence Britain’s trajectory in navigating the complexities of a shifting global order. Will the UK be ready to adapt and assert its values, or will it find itself caught in a whirlwind of uncertainty? Only time will tell.