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Beyond Rwanda: What Next for Labour’s Illegal Immigration Strategy in the Next 5 years?

Immigrants, refugees and Asylum Seekers in the background, a fence of barbed wire in the foreground, for an article on Immigration

With channel crossings nearing record highs and a recent spate of devastating fatalities, illegal immigration has reached the forefront of Keir Starmer’s agenda. In the wake of violent far-right riots in the UK following the Southport stabbings, polling now shows immigration as the British public’s primary concern, a fact not lost on Reform and the Conservatives, who have sharpened their focus on Labour’s immigration stance.

Even former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair has issued a sobering warning to the new PM, cautioning Starmer to maintain a firm grip on immigration to stave off populist rhetoric. With the Starmer scrapping Rishi Sunak’s contentious Rwanda plan on his first day in office, pivoting from the ‘stop the boats’ to the ‘smash the gangs’ slogan, what concrete steps does Starmer propose to tackle illegal migration?

A new Border Security Command to counter Illegal Immigration

At the heart of Labour’s strategy is the proposed Border Security Command as part of the forthcoming Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill. This new legislation, championed by home secretary Yvette Cooper in place of the “dead” Rwanda plan aims to:

  • Set up a Border Security Command, which will be responsible for coordinating the activities of Immigration enforcement, MI5, Border Force, and the National Crime Agency.
  • Strengthen penalties against organised immigration crime (OIC), including preparatory offences such as enabling the advertising of migrant smuggling group services and supplying materials.
  • Recruit a new Border security Commander (to be announced in the coming weeks).

Notably, Labour plans to direct funds originally earmarked for the Rwanda scheme towards the initiative. The Rwanda plan, which has already cost £310m, with a total projected cost of around £700m, has been blasted by Starmer as a “reckless gimmick”. Nevertheless, the new proposals appear to, as indicated by the slogan, target human-smuggling gangs, in place of that of his predecessors attempts to directly target boats trying to cross the channel.   

Removals and Returns: A Numbers Game for Immigration

The government has also announced ambitious targets for deportations, with a renewed focus on returns programmes with partner countries. 

  • Starmer announced a new returns program to expedite the removal of individuals without legal rights to stay in the UK. 
  • The Home Office declared it was spending £15 million on return partnerships with 11 countries to boost the number of deportations of small boat migrants.  
  • Yvette Cooper announced a Labour pledge to return the number of failed asylum seekers sent back to their home countries to 2018 levels over the next 6 months, meaning more than 14,000 deportations by the end of the year. 

Processing immigration claims offshore? 

At the European Political Community summit this July at Blenheim Palace, Starmer reaffirmed his commitment to ‘reset[ting] our approach to illegal migration’. During a meeting held with the Albanian PM Edi Rama, Starmer indicated he was open to processing asylum seekers offshore. He referenced a deal struck between Italy and Albania last year where processing centres would be set up for asylum seekers in the former, only being permitted entry on condition their application was accepted. This differs from the previous government’s Rwanda scheme where those individuals sent away would never return. 

This idea has gained significant traction across the EU. After seven years of negotiations came to an end this May on the political deal to overhaul the bloc’s asylum and migration rules, many EU countries have been considering offshore processing.

Barely following the completion of the reforms, Denmark, followed by 15 other EU states, led an initiative to call for more efforts to curb migration, to ‘tackle the root causes of irregular migration and manage movements in the EU’. The focal point of the initiative is to create a more efficient framework for the removal of those whose asylum claims have been rejected. Also present are calls for more deals with third countries such as those with Turkey and Tunisia, offering money in exchange for stopping migration into the bloc. 

Starmer, however, clarified at the end of the summit that offshore processing was not at the “top of his priorities”, namely ‘smashing the gangs’, declaring “we need to secure our borders first”. Nevertheless, later down the line, the PM could well turn to offshore asylum claim processing as a means to manage the channel crossings, something hinted in July. 

Addressing immigration “at source”

Starmer also reaffirmed his commitment to stop illegal migration “at source” at the EPC summit, focusing on “practical solutions”, not “gimmicks”. The PM declared that the ‘root causes’ driving people from their homes, such as conflict, climate change and extreme poverty, must be addressed. A pledge of £84m in foreign aid was made to help curb ‘irregular’ migration, the funding includes:

  • £13 million to expand Migration for Development programmes in North and East Africa 
  • £21 million in multilateral support for key host and transit countries, including Libya, Ethiopia, Egypt and Chad
  • £26 million for programmes across the Middle East and wider region to support Syrian refugees 
  • £24 million in direct funding to support communities in Sudan, Chad and Ethiopia

It is not to say whether this increase in funding won’t help Starmer’s efforts to reduce migration, these pledges are unlikely to directly see any returns in the coming years due to their long-term nature. 

Renewing EU relations

Moreover, Starmer’s conduct at the EPC was characterised by a spirit of rehabilitating thorny post-Brexit relations with his European counterparts. Stressing cooperation, he remarked “we want to work with all of you to reset relationships”, signalling a potential change in discourse from the previous government. Part of these efforts included a declaration that the UK would never leave the ECHR, a departure from a prospect previously flirted by the Conservatives. This sentiment was warmly received by European leaders, with Macron declaring Starmer had brought “new momentum” to “political life and domestic politics”. 

This shift in discourse from Starmer, demonstrating a renewed emphasis on EU cooperation, may well pave the way for a more collaborative approach on illegal migration. Plans for a security agreement with the EU to cooperate on intelligence and policing are already on the way, and Starmer’s pro-EU stance may well lead to more work with the bloc to tackle illegal migration, such as the aforementioned prospect of offshore asylum processing. 

Final thoughts 

A strong measure of competence, arguably one of the kryptonites of the previous Conservative government, the issue of illegal immigration will now determine a vital component of Labour’s image. Starmer’s strategy is firmly rooted in pragmatism, with a clear determination to appear ‘tough’ on an issue he recognises as paramount to the electorate.

Time will tell how effective the soon-to-be-established Border Security Command is in actually stopping illegal migration, with the opposition benches already blasting the PM for lack of effective replacement of the Rwanda Scheme. Moreover, the government’s ability to meet its ambitious deportation targets will likely serve as a salient metric by which the electorate judges Starmer’s immigration competency. While hints of offshore processing deals remain on the cards, albeit not a “priority”, it’s Starmer’s renewed focus on mending EU relations that may ultimately shape his illegal immigration strategy. 

This Article was written by Chamber UK’s feature writer, Oscar Newman.

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