The Vice President tends to have particular influence over foreign policy. This article will look at Minnesota governor – Tim Walz, Kentucky Governor – Andy Beshear, Arizona Governor – Mark Kelly and Pennsylvania Governor – Josh Shapiro, and what their potential candidacies could mean for the UK.
NATO and Defence
In contrast to their Republican counterpart, all the main Democratic candidates have announced their support for Ukraine and the NATO alliance.
As was noted by the Kyiv Independent, Josh Shapiro is the only candidate being interviewed by Kamala to have not been directly involved in attempts to support Ukraine. Before Federal sanctions, Tim Walz signed legislation banning the state of Minnesota from doing business with Russia or Belarus, whilst Senator Mark Kelly has consistently advocated the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine in congress, going as far as to fly one alongside Ukrainian pilots late last year. Beshear has been sanctioned by the Russian government due to his support for Ukraine.
It is highly unlikely that any of the leading candidates will undermine Harris’ position of strong support for NATO and Ukraine.
Trade
A trade deal with the United States is a core part of the UK government’s plan for international trade. The constitution significantly limits the ability of the governor to organise foreign trade deals. However, as shown by the trade memorandums passed by Republican states towards the United Kingdom, there exist more symbolic ways of supporting international trade.
Surprisingly for a Rust-belt politician, Shapiro has not emphasised protectionism particularly in his term as governor. Shapiro continued the annual “Bringing the World to Pennsylvania” event, designed to encourage international trade and investment with Commonwealth countries, including the United Kingdom.
Whilst Beshear has a similar record as governor, he may be more hesitant for a trade deal than other contenders. Beshear’s connection to the United Auto Workers (UAW) was vital to his election, with the union now being one of the governor’s most significant supporters for Vice President. Given that disputes over the automotive industry played a significant role in the breakdown of trade negotiations under Trump, this could make a trade deal more difficult under Beshear.
Mark Kelly is the only member of congress in the front-running. Whilst Kelly has called for Tariffs on Chinese Solar Panel production, his argument has been one in terms of national security, rather than economic. This so-called ‘strategic shoring’ is likely to build up American trade relations with historic allies like the UK rather than diminish it.
The Middle East
As was detailed in a previous article, Labour committed themselves to support the UN and American-backed ceasefire plan in addition to supporting the recognition of Palestine, most likely as part of a ceasefire deal.
All Vice-Presidential candidates have expressed their support for a two-state solution, however, none have publicly supported the recognition of the state of Palestine within its 1967 borders. The candidate’s positions on Gaza are more unclear.
A website called ‘No Genocide Josh’ has been quickly created to oppose Shapiro’s candidacy as Vice President, with many accusing the governor of supposedly opposing a ceasefire. Despite this criticism, the governor has never publicly commented on a ceasefire. The Council for American Islamic Relations (CAIR) publicly criticised his silence on the issue, something that has been repeated with his potential candidacy.
With many top democrats also remaining silent on the issue of a ceasefire and receiving significantly less criticism, many have argued that Shapiro is being unfairly singled out due to the fact that he is Jewish.
It is undeniable that much of the criticism laid against Shapiro could also be levied at other candidates. Senator Kelly stated on an NBC interview that whilst considering Republican descriptions of pro-Palestinian protestors as ‘antisemitic zombies’ was “escalatory”, he went on to say that he agreed with “some of that sentiment”.
In contrast to Shapiro, Beshear was openly asked whether he supported a ceasefire in Gaza and refused to answer. Shapiro has also referred to Netenyahu as a “terrible leader”.
What this shows isn’t just that Shapiro isn’t dramatically more pro-Israel than other potential VP candidates, but that other potential VP candidates aren’t particularly pro-Palestinian. So far, none of the candidates have publicly supported Biden’s Ceasefire plan.
All have expressed some degree of sympathy with civilian suffering in Gaza, however, they have not been nearly as hard on the issue as Harris. This will likely make it more difficult for a potential Kamala Harris Presidency to enforce a hard line on Israel’s Prime Minister, with her Vice President potentially being less willing to back her up.
Environment and Climate Change
As a cornerstone of his energy policy, Starmer has pledged to pursue the creation of a “Clean Power Alliance” with other nations. In effect, this doctrine would consist of the UK holding other countries to account on emission as wella s co-operating on technology.
Although there are disagreements on the way to achieve the transition, such as Roy Cooper and Andy Beshear’s opposition to nuclear power, all candidates have supported some degree of action against climate change.
As Governor, Shapiro made the reduction of coal emissions a core part of his gubernatorial campaign, an impressive feat in among the most polluting states in America.
The only candidate to have significant blemishes in the climate record is governor Beshear. Coal mining is still a major industry in Kentucky. As such, Beshear has consistently supported the role of coal in the state’s energy mix. Despite claiming to support ‘clean coal’ as an alternative to renewables, Beshear asked the Biden administration to not improve federal soot pollution standards.
Beshear was also among a small number of governors to reject funding provided by the Biden administration for green investment. The funding was accepted by most Republican states, with Beshear being the only Democratic governor to reject the funding.
Despite this, Beshear insists that he accepts the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change and that he does aim for an eventual climate transition. With his position speculated to represent that of his state rather than his own, it is likely that he will assume a position closer to the Democratic mainstream in talks with other foreign leaders.
Final Thought
All of the potential Vice Presidential candidates are likely to align with Kamala on virtually every issue. The exception to this is likely to be Gaza.
An op-ed for Newsweek last week told progressive that they “don’t have to worry about Shapiro’s position [on Gaza]! He’s not in charge, she [Kamala Harris] is”. Whilst the Vice President can’t formally sign agreements on behalf of the US government or authorise military deployments, the Vice President wields significant power as the most authoritative diplomatic voice besides the president himself.
Perhaps most dramatically, Vice President Pence assured European leaders that the United States would not withdraw from NATO following threats by Trump to the contrary. Similarly, as vice president LBJ assured South Vietnamese President Ngo Diem that the US would deploy more troops to South Vietnam, something that went against the President’s position. The Vice President has the ability to undermine or reinforce the positions of the President to foreign leaders.
As a foreign policy issue so heavily dependent on diplomacy, discord between the President and her VP could be significant. Whilst other issues are currently receiving more attention, if the US is unable to enforce a ceasefire in Israel, the result could worsen Labour’s position in government.
For more insight on Curia UK’s US-UK Foreign Policy analysis, please click here.