Following a historic comeback last week, Donald Trump will return to the White House in January picking up 312 electoral college votes. Despite Keir Starmer affirming his “hearty congratulations” to the president-elect, Kemi Badenoch last week brought to light awkward and contradictory comments made from the Labour front benches to Trump during her first appearance as Conservative leader.
Jabs from both sides have resurfaced following Trump’s victory, with Foreign Secretary David Lammy calling Trump a ‘neo-nazi sympathising sociopath’ whilst in opposition, and Team Trump filing a legal complaint against the “far-left” party after report of Labour staff supporting Kamala Harris’ election bid.
Government front benches are keen to brush over these spats, and Whitehall has been diligently preparing for months in anticipation of an ‘America First’ presidency. The Ukraine-Russia war and the UK’s formal departure from the EU have added further delicacy to upcoming US-UK relations. With a full charm-offensive underway from Starmer’s administration and the looming threat of export tariffs, Anglo-American diplomatic relations are at a crucial point.
The Ukraine Conflict
European leaders alike have been bracing for the impact of a Trump victory and its ramifications on the Ukraine-Russia conflict. A key campaign promise from the Former President was to end the war ‘before he took office’, brokering a deal between Putin and Zelensky to reach peace in the region.
Little detail, however, has been provided by Trump on the content or nature of this deal. Kyiv has been bracing for a Trump victory, with the president-elect referring to Putin as a “genius”, leaders in Europe and beyond have speculated that the proposed ‘deal’ may involve Ukrainian concession of territory to Russia.
Trump’s approach and rhetoric has received criticism on both sides, failing to expand upon the terms or strategy he would enact to see an end to the conflict. In the prospect of a concessionary deal being rejected by Kyiv – all fears are on Trump pulling out of funding for Ukraine. By far the largest donor, the US has provided 75.1bn euros compared to only 13.1bn from the UK, therefore the prospect of Trump ceasing support would put an enormous pressure on the UK and EU to continue its support.
In anticipation, Starmer and Macron held last minute talks on Monday to assess the possibility of persuading Biden to give Ukraine permission to fire Storm Shadow missiles in the final phase of his presidency, highlighting the urgency of Trump’s effect on the Ukraine war.
NATO Relations
Trump’s attitude to NATO was undoubtedly a point of contention during Trump’s last term as president – shrouded by constant threat to pull out of the defence pact, if members did not meet the required defence spending of 2.5% of national GDP. Rumours are now circulating that the incoming president intends to hike this commitment to 3% GDP. Support for Ukraine undoubtedly hinges on the cohesion of NATO relations, with a breakdown in the alliance very likely jeopardising US support for the Zelensky.
Backtracking on comments made earlier this year, with Trump saying he would let Russia do “whatever the hell they want” to NATO countries failing to meet the defence criteria, he later clarified that the US would remain in NATO so long as the other countries ‘play fair’.
In a recent development – senior Trump officials have expressed ‘shock’ by the surprise appointment of Pete Hegseth, a former Fox News anchor as defence secretary, defying many expectations that it would be Mike Pompeo, perhaps Ukraine’s strongest defender amongst Trump’s allies.
Hegseth has consistently downplayed the importance of supporting Ukraine and has blasted NATO, in his words branding it as a group of ‘self-righteous and impotent’ nations using America as an ‘emergency contact number’
In any event, Trump’s incoming presidency will undoubtedly pressure Starmer to prioritise defence spending. Previously committing to a 2.5% of GDP on defence, Starmer hasn’t clarified when the UK will meet this target – and we may well now see renewed focus on defence from the government.
The very real possibility that the US pulls all support for Ukraine will undoubtedly stretch Starmers’ defence commitments to the brink. With last month’s budget raising taxes by £40bn – Starmer will have to either realign his spending commitments, or re-evaluate British support for Ukraine – as without US support, Ukraine won’t be able to fend of the Russian threat under current levels European support –
Trump’s Effect on the UK Economy
One of the landmark policies of the Trump campaign, tariffs on goods imports, will pose a significant threat to the UK economy. As the US is Britain’s largest single export destination, tariffs are expected to be at 10% on all good imports, and a staggering 60% rate for China.
The National Institute of Social and Economic Research, a leading think-tank, has predicted that a 10% rate of tariffs on all goods exports to the US would reduce the UK’s GDP growth by 0.7 percentage points, contrasting sharply with the 0.1% growth our economy saw last year.
Preparations in Whitehall began months ago in the event of a Trump victory, and Rachel Reeves has cautiously said last week that the impact on the UK’s economy is “too early” to predict.
Senior Republicans have indicated that ‘friendly nations’ may be able to escape tariffs, a feat that, if pulled off successfully by the UK, would escape significant economic harm.
In the event of a future UK-US trade deal, Starmer will be hard-squeezed, with concessions likely to include US corporate access to the NHS or a relaxing current agricultural regulation.
Final Thought: What is in Store for Future UK-US Relations
It is no secret that a Trump victory is the less favoured option by Starmer and those sitting on the government benches. However, although the two are far more ideologically opposed than that of his Conservative predecessors, the recent charm-offensive by Labour frontbenchers towards the president-elect has indicated the critical implications that Trump’s victory may have on UK-US relations.
What is clear, is that the incoming president will undoubtedly place much more pressure on Starmer. In contrast to the outgoing Biden administration which declared its unwavering commitment to Ukraine, it may well be that Trump ceases military aid to Ukraine altogether, at odds with Starmer’s “iron-clad” support to the country. Following a landmark budget with record-high spending, Trump’s victory will certainly mean renewed government focus on defence spending in order to maintain NATO relations.
What we may well see is a Prime Minister conflicted whether to pursue stronger relations with Brussels or Washington – as although closer US relations may favour the UK’s economic interests, the government’s commitment towards European defence may well pull it in the other direction.
For more of Curia’s analysis on Trump’s incoming Presidency and its implications for the UK, stay tuned, and click here.
This article was written by Chamber UK’s features writer, Oscar Newman.