Tensions between the US and China, War in Ukraine and the ever increasing arms donations to stop the Russian invasion there are putting pressure on the Government and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to increase the defence budget.
It’s understood that the Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace is requesting extra funds to upgrade the UK military and Conservative MPs are calling for an increase.
Tobias Ellwood MP
A frequent advocate of raising the defence budget and former Under Secretary of State at the Ministry of Defence, Tobias Ellwood has called on the Government to spend more on the military, particularly the army.
“Unfortunately, investments in cyber and space security resulted in cuts in capabilities across all three services but most spectacularly in the British Army.”
Tobias Ellwood MP
“If we don’t step forward – who will? It’s time rekindle our statecraft skills and increase our defence spending to 3 per cent. Or like in the 1930s we may just regret it.”
Alluding to the start of the Second World War, he states that we may “regret” low spending “like in the 1930s”. Currently UK defence spending is running slightly over the 2% target for NATO countries at 2.1% of GDP in 2022.
Spending Defence
While Mr. Ellwood calls for an increased Defence budget of 3% of GDP, the Treasury will be wary of unfunded spending increases after Liz Truss’s short premiership showed how little room for manoeuvre the UK Government has before the markets lose faith. The Chancellor and Prime Minister have made clear that their near term targets include halving inflation which also suggests that any increase in defence spending will imply decreases in spending elsewhere.
Final thought
As Mr Ellwood makes clear in his allusions, the goal of increasing defence spending is as much to deter aggression from geopolitical rivals from aggressive actions as it is to win wars if and when they come.
The UK Government however is in a difficult position. There is almost no room for unfunded Government spending, good reasons not to stoke inflation with additional spending and many calls on the public purse. Mr Ellwood would no doubt argue that the cost of any war will inevitably be far more costly than even an expensive deterrent. The question is whether it is required and whether an increase in UK defence spending will make the difference.
NATO and US allies combined currently dominate defence spending globally but this will not always guarantee local superiority where clashes of rivals may occur. It is a hard judgement as to where the next deployment of UK forces will be and therefore the nature of investment required.
Photo Credit: Cpl Ross Fernie RLC