Ruth Townend
Chatham HouseSenior Research Fellow, Environment and Society Centre
Azerbaijan, a country with no previous record of climate leadership, has secured a place at the centre of the multilateral climate change agenda. It will host COP29 in November, has formed a climate leadership ‘troika’ with COP28 and 30 hosts – UAE and Brazil – and has signed up to host UN World Environment Day in 2026.
Azerbaijan as a Leader on Climate
In some ways, Azerbaijan is ideally placed to get to the heart of climate dilemmas – with a fossil-fuel-based economy facing a renewable future; its position straddling Europe and Asia; being industrialised but still developing; and being flanked by Russia and Iran in an era of heightened geopolitical tensions. Azerbaijan is a microcosm of stymied global climate progress, now leading talks in which the most reticent set the ceiling, not the floor, of ambition.
Yet Azerbaijan’s actions so far have not left observers hopeful. The Government has used the COP platform to robustly defend its expansion of natural gas production, and has framed domestic renewables as a way to free up more gas for export. In a country already highly repressive of civil society, crackdowns on NGOs and independent media have escalated. Claims to climate leadership from Azerbaijan will not, therefore, be easy to establish or maintain.
The UK could prove a valuable ally. Unlike Azerbaijan, it has a long history of climate leadership – from launching the world’s first national carbon market in 2002 to passing the Climate Change Act in 2008 to an energetic and widely praised Presidency of COP26. The UK has boosted its own standing in international diplomacy and helped exert a tangible influence on global efforts to limit temperature rise.
Climate change will make Azerbaijan hotter, drier, poorer, and less secure. There is a brief opportunity for it to use its access to the nucleus of international climate leadership, and a global climate community willing it to succeed, to its long-term advantage. Azerbaijan’s Government should openly acknowledge its dilemma as a fossil fuel producer. By positioning itself as a vanguard of radical change, it could harness global expertise and shape climate finance to build its domestic resilience and secure a strong position for the country in a changing world order.
The UK Supporting Azerbaijan
An alliance of climate leadership is a pivot for the UK and Azerbaijan, given the mainstay of cooperation to date has been extracting oil and natural gas from the Caspian Sea. UK allyship, so far, has included the establishment of a COP unit at the British embassy in Baku, with Nick Baker, formerly of the UK’s COP26 Unit, at the helm. Baku Climate Action Week has been supported by London Climate Action Week founders E3G, while COP26 President, Alok Sharma, has actively engaged with the COP29 presidency team.
The UK Foreign Office works for stable and transparent democracy in Azerbaijan, integration into Euro-Atlantic structures, an open, market-based economy, and effective governance structures. The UK could further all these goals, alongside wider climate objectives, through continued support for solid commitments and actions from Azerbaijan to accompany its climate leadership claims.
The UK Government also has an opportunity to demonstrate its own commitment to a whole-of-society effort on climate action and to support Azerbaijani counterparts in enacting the same. Active civil society participation is both a fundamental tenet of the COP and an acknowledged prerequisite for ambitious, viable climate action. Crackdowns on civil society are not offset by initiatives like the COP29 NGO Coalition and Baku Climate Action Week, with their selective and largely foreign participation.
Final Thought
Finally, since COP26, the COP presidency role has grown in scope and symbolism. The UNFCCC secretariat should consider the benefits and damages realised by the rotation of the Presidency, and how to promote the former and minimise the latter. The UK Government and COP26 alumni, such as Sharma and Baker, are well-placed to support this important step. Faith and trust in the UNFCCC, the Paris Agreement, and the COP process are the bedrock of multilateral climate ambition. They provide the world’s last, best hope of action that serves global, as well as national, interests.
The Chatham House publication, COP29, the ‘Troika’ and beyond: Azerbaijan’s change challenge, is available on the Chatham House website
This content was originally published in the Net Zero Investment and Sustainability edition of our Chamber UK Journal.
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