To followers of Canadian politics, Pierre Poilievre is a familiar face. A fixture on the green benches of the Canadian House of Commons for two decades and a career politician who gave his maiden speech while he was still in his nappies, Pierre Poilievre is an Ottawa veteran – some would say an Ottawa insider – if there ever was one. But for British policymakers less familiar with the Conservative leader – who is Pierre Poilievre, the man who may be be Canada’s next Prime Minister?
A political lifetimer with a populist edge
Pierre Poilievre’s political brand has been forged in the fires of relentless opposition – to Liberal governments, central institutions, and the so-called “gatekeepers” he believes stand between Canadians and their prosperity. Long before populism became fashionable, Poilievre had made a name for himself railing against big government, high taxes and bureaucracy.
His brand is part-Reagan, part-TikTok. On social media, his videos routinely rack up millions of views, bypassing traditional media and speaking directly to a growing base of frustrated voters. His message is consistent: life is harder, government is bloated, the establishment is to blame – and he has the answers. That message, fed by the oxygen of a unique Canadian culture war and eye-watering house prices that make even the country’s highest earners cringe in fear as they pass an estate agent’s window has propelled him from YouTube-famous backbencher to Conservative leader – and soon, likely Canada’s next Prime Minister.
The 2025 election: Riding a wave of discontent
The Pierre Poilievre framing is that the federal election of 2025 is a referendum on stagnation. After nearly a decade of Liberal rule under Justin Trudeau – and a technocratic interlude under Mark Carney – the Conservative leader is betting that Canadians are ready for something radically different. With inflation, mortgage stress, and rising crime dominating headlines, the appetite for bold change is growing louder – and Pierre Poilievre is serving up a feast of policies that diverge from the last decade of consensus.
His campaign leans into discontent. Promising to “axe the tax,” “build homes, not bureaucracy,” and “make Canada affordable again,” Poilievre offers not just a policy platform, but a posture — unapologetically combative, confrontational, and, to many Canadians, refreshingly direct. His critics see anger and inexperience. His supporters see conviction, clarity, and a long-overdue break from political niceties.
From slogans to strategy
If elected, Pierre Poilievre is expected to move fast. His top priorities are well-rehearsed: scrapping the carbon tax, tying federal housing funds to local zoning reform, cutting red tape, and launching an audit of the Bank of Canada. He has also promised to defund the CBC – a move as symbolic as it is substantive – and pass legislation aimed at protecting freedom of speech on university campuses and online platforms.
The Pierre Poilievre message is clear: less bureaucracy, more freedom. But the Liberals (taking an ironically small ‘c’ conservative view) argue his platform amounts to defunding and deepening divides – particularly dangerous in a country already split along urban, generational, and, most of all, linguistic lines. The boldness of the vision may win headlines, but turning slogans into legislation is political alchemy that will require patience and discipline.
Foreign policy: ‘Canada First’
While Pierre Poilievre’s domestic agenda is well-known, his approach to foreign policy remains more opaque – perhaps on purpose with the current White House. He has signalled support for Ukraine and NATO, but has also struck a more cautious tone toward multilateralism, global climate agreements, and UN institutions.
His foreign posture is less about global stagecraft and more about hard interests — trade access, energy exports, and economic sovereignty. Under a “Canada First” lens, Poilievre is expected to prioritise bilateral deals that directly benefit Canadian workers and resource producers, rather than pursuing expansive diplomatic commitments. Relations with the United States – currently strained by tariff disputes and cross-border energy tensions – are likely to shift in tone. Unlike Mark Carney’s combative approach, Pierre Poilievre has indicated a willingness to engage pragmatically with Washington, including a second Trump administration, so long as Canadian sovereignty and economic independence are respected.
Risks and realignment
A Pierre Poilievre premiership would represent a major realignment in Canadian politics – not just in policy, but in tone. Within a matter of months, Trudeau’s over-earnest niceness will have been replaced in an about-turn with Pierre Poilievre’s more combative demeanour.
His supporters believe he’ll finally deliver a government that speaks plainly and acts quickly. But he also risks deepening Canada’s political polarisation, particularly if his critics’ concerns about institutional erosion and social division prove accurate.
His campaign has thrived on defining what he’s against: carbon taxes, gatekeepers, red tape, the “Laurentian elite.” If he wins, the challenge will be shifting from opposition to administration – from slogans to substance – while holding together a political coalition that spans suburban parents, rural oil workers, disaffected millennials, and crypto-enthusiasts.
Final thought
Pierre Poilievre’s rise reflects a deep, and long-awaited shift in Canadian political culture – a move away from cautious centrism toward something sharper, bolder, and more confrontational – and, in being all of those things, one might daresay more American. Whether or not he wins the next election, his influence is already undeniable. He has reframed the national conversation around affordability, freedom, and frustration — and forced both his opponents and the institutions he rails against to take notice.
For now, Canada stands at a fork in the road. One path leads through the steady continuity of technocratic governance. The other – Pierre Poilievre’s path – is untested, more volatile, but promises something his supporters feel has long been missing: change with urgency.
Whatever the result, the 2025 election will not just decide who governs. It will define how.
For more of Curia’s foreign affairs analysis, please click here.
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