Ulysse Abbate
Research Assistant, Chamber UKAfter being the first party to launch their pre-manifesto, the Liberal Democrats have launched their 2024 General Election manifesto from an SME office rental in Shoreditch. With the Liberal Democrats expected to become the third party, at the expense of the SNP, and even mild rumours of a hung parliament, Chamber dives in to their manifesto, and the key points within it.
Message of the Manifesto: For a Fair Deal
Since 2022, Leader of the Liberal Democrats, Ed Davey, has put a fair deal at the heart of his campaign. In this manifesto, that message comes across, coupled with an increasingly familiar commitment to ‘change’. Their manifesto focuses on a fair deal for five key policy areas:
- A fair deal on the economy
On the economy, the Lib Dems have focussed on empowering people and businesses with policies including a โLifelong Skills Grantโ, reform to parental leave and reforming business rates.
- A fair deal on public services
As called for by organisations including the Resolution Foundation,ย look to supporting public services on four fronts: the NHS, Education, the welfare safety net (benefits and pensions)and the justice system. They also highlight their primary announcement on the NHS: a new right to see a GP in seven days or 24 hours if urgent.
- A fair deal on the environment
On the environment, the manifesto splits focus to two areas: the natural environment (Davey famously fell into the lake Windermere in a stunt to raise awareness of water pollution) and climate change. On the former, a big focus on new, stronger regulators, whereas the latter mentions policies including a home insulation programme, investment in solar capacities (a 90% renewables target by 2030), all as part of the Liberal Democratsโ aim to bring forward the net zero target from 2050 to 2045.
- A strong United Kingdom and a fair international order
Departing from their traditional wording (but keeping mention of something โfairโ), the Liberal Democratโs have officially ended speculation on their EU position. They are in favour of joining the single market in the short term, with a long term aim to rejoin the EU. Coupled with increasing defence spending and moving international development spending back to 0.7% (from 0.5%), this a section likely praised heavily by internationalists.
- A truly fair democracy
Anyone who knows the Liberal Democrat internal systems will likely be aware of the number of constitutional wonks in the party. It is therefore no surprise that Liberal Democrats are reaffirming their commitment to proportional representation, as well as localisation (including a federal UK with a written constitution), and other policies including capping donations, votes for 16-17 year olds and enshrining the Ministerial Code into legislation.
A Magic Manifesto Money Tree?
The Liberal Democrats expect new spending to reach ยฃ33,75 billion (alongside a ยฃ19,95 billion capital expenditure paid for by borrowing according to the โgolden ruleโ). This includes spending around ยฃ9bn on Health and Social Care, ยฃ4bn on welfare, child benefits and poverty, and ยฃ6.3bn on international development.
Whilst ยฃ33,75 billion might seem radical compared to the Labour and Conservative parties’ tamer spending commitments, Liberal Democrat’s claim to have balanced the books. Their policies lead to ยฃ33,75 billion estimated revenue, not including growth estimates effects (where a growing economy leads to an expectation of greater tax income).
On these revenue-making policies, a few stand out. Their reversal of the 5% to 3% cut to the bank surcharge levy is estimated to raise ยฃ4bn, reform of Capital Gains Tax estimated to deliver ยฃ5bn income and allowing asylum seekers to work after three months aiming to raise ยฃ4.5bn. However, their largest revenue-raiser remains tackling tax avoidance and evasion (over ยฃ8bn raised), a policy which other parties have committed to, but in practice is often hard to put in effect.
Furthermore, Liberal Democrats are keen to push the ‘invest to save’ message. They argue that investment in policies like their ยฃ8,000 GPs would lead to savings down the road (by making the NHS more sustainable and efficient), as would their policy on social care. Whilst an easy argument to make in theory, Liberal Democrats will be waiting on the much-coveted stamp of approval from the independent think tank, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (the leading, highly respected economics think tank that in practice acts as the primary independent scrutineer of election manifestos in the U.K.).
Final Thought
The messaging of the Liberal Democrats is clear: whilst they will stand by historic commitments to policies like rejoining the EU or electoral reform the focus of their manifesto reinforces their laser-focussed-on-winning-seats strategy. Polling suggests that voters in the Blue Wall (where many Liberal Democrat target seats lie), care about the NHS and the natural environmentโฆ both feature heavily in the manifesto. Building off strong local elections in 2022-24, is this a sign of a Liberal Democrat party on its way to returning to its Ashdown-Kennedy glory days?
For full access to full Liberal Democrat Manifesto, please click here.
Please stay tuned for more of Chamber’s analysis on other pre-election Manifestos from all political parties here.