Overnight, the Labour Party earned another win in a by-election when Michael Shanks took home a significant victory in Rutherglen and Hamilton West in Scotland. The seat had been left vacant by MP Margaret Ferrier, who was forced to resign from her post in August after she was found to have broken COVID restrictions in 2020.
Although Shanks was expected to win, the margin of the victory will be a huge boost to the Labour Party. Out of the 30,531 votes that were cast, Shanks received 17,485 while the SNP’s Katy Loudon received 8,399. This represents a 20.6% swing from SNP to Scottish Labour and bodes well for the party’s chances at the next general election.
The win itself is a good indicator of how Scotland views the SNP and Labour ahead of the next election but also of how they view the Conservatives. The Conservative hopeful in the by-election, Thomas Kerr, finished 3rd in the election with just 3.9% of the vote. This is down from the 15% the party received in Rutherglen and Hamilton West in 2019.
Although Kerr blamed strategic voting for the poor outcome, with the Conservative hopeful suggesting that constituents were sending a message to the SNP, it’s another significant loss for Rishi Sunak’s party after setbacks in Somerton and Frome and Selby and Ainsty in recent months.
Hamilton West decides
After the result came in, members of the Labour Party were understandably buoyant. The winning candidate, Michael Shanks, told reporters afterwards:
“There’s absolutely no doubt that this result shows that there’s no part of the United Kingdom that Labour can’t win. It’s been a long time in Scotland – Labour building back to a place where people can trust us again.
“The leadership of Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar has got us to a place where people have put their trust in us. I’m incredibly honoured by the trust people have put in me in this by-election. But it shows fundamentally that people are fed up with the division of the SNP and want to vote for something else. And it’s clear from this by-election that people are willing to do that.”
The win is a big one for Labour as it doubles the number of Labour MPs in Scotland. Leader, Sir Kier Starmer, had made it a priority to re-earn the trust of the Scottish people when he became the party leader and this victory is the first sign of that coming to fruition. He said:
“I have always said that winning back the trust of people in Scotland is essential. Tonight’s victory is the culmination of three and a half years of hard work and humility on that journey.
“This is a seismic result. People in Rutherglen and Hamilton West have sent a clear message – it is time for change. And it is clear they believe that this changed Labour Party can deliver it. I am grateful to everyone who has put their faith in us today – we will work every day to repay it.”
A bad night for the SNP
While the Conservatives may be concerned with how much of the vote they lost, the party that will be most alarmed by the result will be the SNP. It was the first by-election that the party have faced since Humza Yousaf became leader.
Controversy has plagued the SNP over the past couple of years and while a loss was expected, the severity of it was perhaps a surprise. In response to the loss, Yousaf said:
It’s a disappointing night. I want to thank our exceptional candidate Katy Loudon and our activists for their incredible efforts. Let me also congratulate Michael Shanks on being elected. The circumstances of this by-election were always very difficult for us.
“We lost this seat in 2017, and like 2019 we can win this seat back. However, we will reflect on what we have to do to regain the trust of the people of Rutherglen and Hamilton West.”
Final thought
The 20.6% swing from SNP to Labour in Rutherglen and Hamilton West is a clear indication that the Scottish people are looking for a change. The SNP’s loss, combined with the Conservatives’ poor showing, suggests that the political landscape in Scotland is shifting.
Labour’s win, led by Michael Shanks’ strong campaign, demonstrates that the party is making progress in rebuilding trust with the Scottish people. This result will undoubtedly have implications for the next general election, and it will be interesting to see how the parties adjust their strategies moving forward.