Rob Clark
Director of Foreign Policy at CuriaIn light of Iranian airstrikes in Syria and subsequent tensions with Israel, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak condemns Iran’s aggression, highlighting the risk of further escalation and emphasising the need for allied cooperation to maintain regional stability.
The British Prime Minister Rish Sunak has today described how Iran has “once again demonstrated that it is intent on sowing chaos in its own backyard”, in the wake of this weekend’s unprecedented attack by Iran on Israel.
This weekend’s attack by Iran has marked a new chapter in the deteriorating security landscape in the Middle East, as for the first time for either country a state has launched over 300 missiles and projectiles at another state.
To put this into its correct context, which is key to understanding a potential Israeli response and any UK-support; Iran has conducted a strategic attack against a nuclear-armed power. All options are likely on the table for an Israeli response, including almost certainly Iran’s nuclear facilities, as many will be making the case that the time has come for Israel to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme before it poses an existential threat to the state in which it just launched a strategic attack on to.
The British Response to Iranian Air Strikes
On Saturday evening the British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak condemned in the strongest terms the Iranian regime’s aerial attack against Israel, declaring that “Iran has once again demonstrated that it is intent on sowing chaos in its own backyard. Alongside our allies, we are urgently working to stabilise the situation and prevent further escalation”.
The Prime Minister later confirmed on Sunday that British Royal Air Force jets had shot down Iranian drones during Tehran’s attack, and called for “calm heads to prevail”, to avoid an escalation of the conflict. “If this attack had been successful, the fallout for regional stability would be hard to overstate. We stand by the security of Israel and the wider region, which is of course important for our security here at home, too. What we now need is for calm heads to prevail.”
After days of coordination with US and Israeli counterparts last week in light of US intelligence forewarning of a likely Iranian strike, the Government authorised the use of RAF Typhoons based in Cyprus to intercept and shoot down Iranian drones, in addition to aircraft based in Iraq and Syria being deployed to intercept “any airborne attacks within range of our existing missions”.
Monday afternoon’s statement to the House on the weekend’s events by the Prime Minster led to both Rishi Sunak and the Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer taking the opportunity to pay homage to British forces in the region supporting allies, and standing up against adversaries like Iran.
The Prime Minster also stated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) remain an active threat against the UK, reconfirming to Parliament that the IRGC have been sanctioned in their entirety, in addition to 400 Iranian officials, whilst the new National Security Act will help against further Iranian threats.
Both Sir Ian Duncan Smith and Suella Braverman both called for the IRGC to be finally proscribed as a terror organisation, particularly in regards their training and funding of Hezbollah, the Lebanese terror organisation who have fired over 4,000 missiles into Israel since 7 October last year.
Alicia Kerns, the chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, additionally highlighted in the House how Iran’s nuclear programme further threatens British and regional security, whilst the Prime Minister replied that the UK is working with allies and partners through international diplomacy to ensure that Iran does not acquire a nuclear capable programme.
Iranian aggression to Israel
Iran’s attack against Israel has peaked tensions in a region already braced for wider conflict due to Hamas’ barbaric attacks against Israel on 7 October last year, and Israel’s subsequent war against Hamas in Gaza, into a state of heightened potential for conflict between Israel and Iran.
Whilst officially denying any involvement in the Hamas attacks, Iran’s all-powerful IRGC Quds Force – its elite guerrilla warfare and intelligence gathering unit – has been instrumental in training and equipping Tehran’s regional proxies across the Middle East for decades – including Hamas and Hezbollah.
Whilst some have argued that Israel’s attack on 1 April on Iran’s consulate in Damascus was unprovoked, the successful strike killed senior Quds Force commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi, widely suspected of helping Iranian coordination in both the Hamas attacks last October and of the drone strike on a US military complex in Jordan in January, killing three US service personnel and injuring dozens more.
Iranian officials have claimed self-defence after that strike was the motive behind this weekend’s barrage, which included approximately 170 Shahed drones, 30 cruise missiles (none of which entered Israeli territory), and at least 110 ballistic missiles (of which a small number reached Israel).
Regional Response
In an interesting turn of geopolitical events, however, Iran’s attack was met with an almost unified position from many of Israel’s allies and regional partners, as the US, Britian, and France were all involved in targeting Iranian drones and missiles as they made their way to Israel, whilst both Saudi Arabia and Jordan engaged projectiles over their territory before they could reach Israel.
In an embarrassing turn for Iran in a night which was meant to showcase Iranian military strength, of the 120 ballistic missiles about half either failed on launch or crashed mid-flight, according to Israeli officials. US aircraft and destroyers, British Typhoons, Israeli F-16s, and French forces all shot down Iranian drones and missiles leaving less than 1 per cent to land in Israeli territory, lightly damaging the Nevatim airbase and injuring one Israeli child.
Israel is almost certain to respond militarily in the coming days or weeks. A single Israeli airstrike on a foreign consulate, targeting a miliary commander responsible for attacks against Israeli and likely US forces, was met with an orchestrated and far-reaching aerial attack involving over 300 drone, cruise, and ballistic missiles in return from Iran.
Had it not been the for the combined efforts of the US, Britian, France, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, in addition to Israel’s vast air defence network, there would likely be many Israeli civilian casualties. Whilst global leaders including the US President and the British Prime Minister urge restraint from Jerusalem, ultimately this may result in a far more comprehensive Israeli response than many in the West are hoping for, as many in Israel are preparing for further strikes against Iran.
Whilst both the US and Britain have ruled out any overt military support to Israel over future strikes against Iran, the UK Armed Forces will almost certainly continue to play a key role in the region, as a further Typhoon squadron reinforced the contingent at RAF Akrotiri, in Cyprus, and with naval assets in the region helping provide intelligence and air defence likely used further in any future attacks against Israel.
This article was written by Curia’s Director of Foreign Policy, Rob Clark, for more information and analysis on foreign policy, please click here.