Miles Bennington
Director, Chamber UKAbstract: Analysis of US voter choice reflects failings in liberal democracy as Trump returns to power.
Democracy. Ain’t it swell?
It’s 5am UK time. No longer the witching hour, we’re into the darkest period of the night. The “taking” hour, when the hottest takes emerge to play on the internet.
Unless I am very much mistaken (please God, let it be so), Donald Trump will be President of America, with more electoral college votes than ever and perhaps a popular vote victory.
This means many things for many people, bad things mainly. But I’m going to focus my analysis on the abstract concept of democracy, because focussing on abstract concepts that the electorate doesn’t understand always leads to good things.
Democracy: The Concept
Liberal democracy is broadly a system of government where the population has significant input over policy via the election of representatives. It is usually also characterised to protect the rights of minorities, particularly the opposition, uphold the rule of law, via institutions at least somewhat shielded from government power and protect certain freedoms for the population at large, namely, speech, assembly, religion and of the press.
For the next two months America is a democracy but they have just elected an authoritarian which from a post colonial or post soviet state suffering from wrenching change, slow growth and weak institutions would be disappointing. From the United States of America, cornerstone of every democratic alliance and upholder of the liberal world order, it’s an unmitigated disaster.
Why has this happened? If we forget who the candidates were for a moment it becomes clear. America voted for change. After a period of inflation and due to all the normal social media and post covid malaise reasons, voters chose to throw the rascals out. A noble impulse if you ignore the candidates.
However, taking a cursory glance at the candidates reveals that Kamala Harris is fine and Donald Trump is a catastrophically dangerous figure who isn’t fit to serve real customers at the McDonald’s take out window. So is the American electorate terrible? Stupid? Or simply rationally disconnected from the political process.
The answer of course is all three. Some people who voted for Trump did so because he’s a ”hateful racist” …and they like that. Some were dumb enough to believe he has their best interests at heart. While it is easy for a political enthusiast like myself to despair at the disconnection of American voters from the consequences of their actions, the vast majority were inconsequential in this election and every election.
The whole process of primaries (where available), first past the post, electoral college, swing voters is a process of shutting out voters and shutting down options. Perhaps this election shows that voters are truly incapable of making these decisions, or perhaps this election shows that when you tune them out of the process they tune out of the process.
Democracy: The War
Still. Enough with the navel gazing. Now we have a war to fight. Most urgently in Ukraine which can likely say goodbye to any further US aid the Biden administration can’t rush out the door.
The UK, Europe and the Western world has no plan B. We bet it all on the United States and lost. With luck a Trump administration will allow us to buy their weapons inventory for Ukraine or to backfill our own stocks but it’s imperative that the remaining allies of Ukraine step up their weapons manufacture.
They will also need to step up their defence spending. Without the United States at our back, revisionist powers everywhere will start to look for opportunities and while we might have expected a Harris administration to be severely tested, that burden now falls on other democracies.
We should also consider that the United States is perhaps no longer our friend. We will have to disentangle ourselves from their hegemony and if we want a rules based order that keeps the peace in the world, it might be time to work out how we do that without a superpower.
Democracy: The World
But wait! There’s more!
This will be a huge boost to the authoritarian right which far from being the fringe outside are now well within the Western mainstream and on the same side as the superpower. It will also galvanise the authoritarian left who always knew America was an imperialist fascist state.
This outcome will weaken the argument for democracy everywhere.
As we barrel toward the 2030s there will be no plan to keep the world safe, no plan to solve the climate crisis, and no just model of government. America has abdicated its leadership. We’re now in a zero sum world.
Democracy: The Failure
So in conclusion, I am somewhat disappointed at this sub-optimal outcome. How about solutions?
Let’s stay in the conceptual space for a moment. People need prosperity, environmental protection, the rule of law, rights and freedoms, healthcare, education, and the chance to live a fulfilling life. Government is our main way of delivering or protecting these things. Democracy is how we choose that Government. This is a failure of democracy as it is currently practised.
Is there a better model? No. At least not in this world. We will have to create one in our minds. Some questions we should ask ourselves:
- Can every vote matter?
- Where are voters getting their information?
- Who is allowed to stand for election? How does the rule of law interact with candidates?
- Are institutions built to defend rights and freedoms?
- What if it all went wrong?
- How can we reform the system once in place?
That last one is the most interesting question. Once we’re in a system, incumbents have a massive incentive to defend their power. Over time this can metastasize into a defence of a failing status quo. When those defences collapse it can take out not just the status quo but democracy itself.
Sign up to Chamber UK’s Newsletter here