In his speech to the Republican National Convention yesterday, Trump’s newly announced Vice President JD Vance joked that the UK would be the first “Islamist country” to acquire nuclear weapons. Besides the foreign policy ramifications of America’s future VP not knowing what Pakistan is, what does JD Vance’s appointment mean for the UK?
It Was All Going So Well
Until the convention yesterday it looked like Vance had a relatively strong opinion of the UK. In this year’s Munich Security Conference, referring to the Foreign Secretary David Lammy as “my English Friend”, he went on to praise the UK as “one of the few exceptions” regarding NATO spending. The wording of Vance’s appreciation is telling of Vance’s broader foreign policy position.
Vance believes that NATO is a burden, calling the alliance “a tax on Americans”. Vance is far from the only Republican with this position; as discussed in a previous article. Vance’s selection does however mean that both members of the presidential ticket have strong isolationist leanings, a sharp contrast to the Mike Pence ticket of 2016 and 2020.
What Does Vance’s NATO Scepticism Mean for the UK?
Even if we are ‘one of the good ones’, Vance’s anti-NATO rhetoric stands in sharp opposition to the cross-party commitment of Labour and the Conservatives to improving European security and supporting Ukraine. The worry of increasing American isolationism has clearly factored into Labour’s decision-making, with Lammy’s bilateral security agreement with Germany likely designed to wean European security architecture away from American dependence.
Despite previously being labeled as an ally that carried its weight, Vance’s comments yesterday showed a willingness to insult countries with no consideration of ramifications. The comments also outline an unsurprising xenophobic streak in JD Vance’s foreign policy. The remarks received condemnation from numerous Labour ministers, with Conservatives such as shadow minister for veterans Andrew Bowie condemning the statement as well. The willingness of Trump’s VP pick to throw out insults to countries he seemingly supports will likely make dissuade the UK, or many other countries from building relations with the US.
However, given the well-established isolationism of the president, how much of an impact will Vance’s selection really have?
What Influence Would JD Vance have Over Foreign Policy?
The role of the Vice President is one that constitutional scholars often consider “undefined”. In 1940, VP John Nance Garner less academically referred to the position as “not worth a warm pitcher of spit”. However, some Vice Presidents have exercised significant control over certain areas of policy, notably Dick Cheney and Richard Nixon. The Vice President often has particular power over foreign policy, sometimes more so than the president themself.
Whilst the President has a host of domestic obligations, the lack of formal powers granted to the Vice President makes them free to engage internationally to a far greater extent than the President. This was true of Trump’s first VP, Mike Pence, who frequently represented the United States abroad in international tours.
With someone with a flexible schedule, foreign officials often spend more time with the VP than the President himself. The Vice President therefore has an important role in either emphasising the President’s position or moderating it. In the administration’s first Munich Security Conference in 2017, Pence heavily downplayed Trump’s isolationist rhetoric in a domestic context, reassuring that NATO allies could count on American support.
Rather than being balanced, a Vance vice presidency would reinforce the perception of American isolationism among world leaders. It will be increasingly hard for American allies to believe that this is all just campaign rhetoric. The effects of this will not just be felt directly in the UK, but would fundamentally alter the international order that the UK conducts its foreign policy in.
Final Thought
Trump’s selection underlines his doubling down on isolationism. Vance’s criticism against NATO members and general distaste for the organisation is an extension of Trump’s policy.
In addition to the direct geopolitical implications of a US pivot away from NATO, the comments made by Vance yesterday are indicative of a more systematic threat to UK interests. Just like his boss, Vance is willing to damage America’s reputation among its allies in exchange for domestic political point scoring. Politicians like people cheering for them, and now that Vance has realised supporters like it when he insults foreign countries, it seems unlikely that he’ll stop.
For more of Chamber UK’s American analysis please click here.
This article was written by Chamber UK’s features writer – Alex Connor.