The years haven’t been kind to the SNP.
Since 2023, the SNP have been embroiled in a diverse range of scandals and political infighting, all whilst satisfaction with public services have declined.
As was previously covered, the SNP received a landslide loss in the general election, holding only nine seats, their lowest number since 2010.
In this backdrop, it’s understandable that the conference has been euphemistically described as low-key. SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn acknowledged the scale of the defeat that he presided over and that “hiding from that harsh reality will fix nothing”.
But how does the SNP plan to fix its falling popularity?
Scottish Independence
Across the spectrum of the party, party figures appeared unified in pining the blame on the SNP’s inability to make a successful case for independence.
This comes after one of the SNP’s nine remaining MPs was expelled from the party in mid-august. MP Angus MacNeil claimed that the party had “lost its way quite badly” and was “not being serious about independence”.
He had called for a de-facto referendum by calling the Scottish Parliamentary election early, something that polls indicated the SNP would lose badly. MacNeil’s dispute represents a significant undercurrent in the party’s membership which is distressed at the lack of progress towards independence in the last 17 years.
SNP leader John Swinney called independence “urgent and essential”, however, has acknowledged the last election many haven’t seen it this way.
Despite the decisive defeat in July, Scottish independence is not massively unpopular. Although falling since January of 2023, support for Scottish independence is 45% according to the only post-election poll so far. Polling has consistently hovered just below 50% since 2019.
To put it simply, independence is more popular than the SNP.
However, the last election shows that Scots are prioritising more material issues over the abstract idea of independence.
Swinney hopes to fix this. He told the conference that “never again” would the SNP go into an election with people supporting independence but being “more concerned about the economy, the cost of living or the national health service”.
The SNP had historically been effective at threading the needle between the abstract ideas of nationalism and voter’s material concerns. The strategy that worked so effectively in 2015 of tying continued membership of the United Kingdom to austerity may once again be effective.
Austerity: A Winning Issue?
As Chamber UK covered in an article last week, Labour’s pledge for austere fiscal policy is unlikely to win much popularity, even if it argues such measures are necessary following Conservative misspending.
In the runup to the party conference, the SNP have highlighted what it sees as dishonest statements by Scottish Labour Leader Anas Sarwar, in which he told a crowd of supporters: “Read my lips – no austerity under Labour.”
Swinney came out swinging in his conference speech yesterday. Swinney described Labour’s fiscal policy as “the same Tory cuts agenda”, pitching clearly to disaffected Labour voters when he described Labour’s reversal as “total breach of trust with all those who supported Labour”.
Paul Hutcheson, the political editor of the Daily Record, speculates that this will be a key part of the SNPs strategy to retaining political relevance.
The government have been fighting optics on this issue hard. During a visit to Scotland last week, the chancellor stated that “the SNP government is as guilty as the Conservative government” in overspending and creating the need for fiscal restraint.
Stephen Flynn has rejected this framing as “ignorant”, stating that devolution requires that the SNP has a balanced budget.
With the SNP being in power for seventeen years, this argument may convince people, however, Swinney’s argument was historically highly effective during Conservative austerity in the 2010s.
Final Thought
The SNP have two years to create a winning electoral strategy for the Scottish parliamentary elections. According to only post-election poll for the 2026 Scottish parliamentary election so far, the SNP are 3% ahead of Labour, just within the margin of error.
However, even if the SNP are able to win a plurality of the popular vote, the path to government will be difficult.
The Scottish parliament works off of an AMS system which assigns votes proportionately.
With right-leaning MSPs refusing any deal with the Greens and the party leadership opposing any deal with Alba, the path to an SNP majority government in 2026 will be a difficult one.