Labour has pledged to ‘Get Britain Working’. Beyond capitalising on the opportunity of a green economy, the UK needs a carefully managed and well-planned ‘just’ and fair transition.
Emily Morrison
Director of Sustainability and a Just Transition at the Young FoundationWe need to talk about planning. Years of incomplete economic policy have been rich in political concepts and catchy gambits, but devoid of impact. In fact, government interventions have led to precisely no change – 0 per cent – in productivity or inequalities for the 20 per cent most deprived local areas in the UK. So, while it may not sound particularly inspiring or exciting, we need less showmanship and more horizon-mindful planning to achieve green growth that benefits all UK people.
Economic Opportunities of Green Growth
For those requiring an economic argument for green growth, estimates from the Climate Change Committee (CCC) include a £1bn net gain in the economy for the UK; while Oxford Economics estimates the green opportunity will be worth $10.3tn globally by 2050. Rebuilding Britain’s (once leading) position in decarbonisation policy and sustainable development also holds significant opportunities to renegotiate our role in politics on the world stage – which in turn, improves trade negotiations, supply chain security, and Britain’s attractiveness as a place to do business and as a destination to study, visit and collaborate with.
It’s therefore imperative that good, green growth is prioritised and empowered by government and fiscal policy at this critical juncture. There are huge opportunities for new green sectors and industries to revitalise local economies and entire communities and neighbourhoods, as well as opportunities to reskill and upskill into green jobs to boost productivity, and opportunities to realise Britain’s prospects as a green superpower – unlocking both domestic and international markets.
However, preceding this comes a tricky and potentially tumultuous period of necessary change. The CCC estimates that the transition could bring up to 725,000 new jobs in the UK. Estimates vary, but conversely, the Trades Union Congress assessed in 2021 that more than 600,000 jobs are also at risk, and they are likely to be unequally distributed. Geographically, the North West (39,100), Yorkshire and the Humber (36,900), and the West Midlands (31,300) stand to see the most job loss and change, while the region predicted to see the least direct risk to jobs is London (8,100). Whole communities are at risk of being hollowed out if industries have to change or employers have to adapt operations or leave, and if there is no just transition plan in place.
To ‘Get Britain Working’ in a way that does not leave large parts of the country behind, it’s vital we develop just transition goals and actions in local and combined authority growth plans, and just transition strategies in businesses that align with these goals.
We also need a clearer definition of exactly what a ‘green job’ is. International, national, and sector-specific descriptions are currently vague and varied, encompassing everything from jobs that have a direct role to protect and preserve the environment or communities from climate risks, create green technologies and energy sources, and finance and regulate those jobs, to jobs that play a direct or indirect role in emissions reduction[A1] . By the latter definition, all jobs will see a degree of change in practice – inthe rise in recycling, waste reduction, the introduction of reusable materials, and energy conservation, or a move to electrified vehicles and technology in logistics and transportation. Shifts in how a job is done require a shift in employees’ working conditions, work practices and, most likely, skills, in order to become ‘green’. Yet, it’s been suggested that less than 1 per cent of businesses have adequate transition plans in place to reach long-term climate goals – and that does not encompass the full scope of what needs to be planned for with workers under a ‘just’ green transition. With that in mind, perhaps a goal should be ‘keeping Britain working’, as well as ‘getting Britain working’, to avoid the risk of employees slipping through the net as jobs change.
Local Workforce Transition Planning
Uncertainty from experts in predicting the rate of job change, and in understanding which jobs will require change and when, means measures to support workers and industries to transition are essential as we plan for the unknown yet inevitable – as stories from the Leeds Coalfields, Tata Steel, and Nissan’s shifts as Sunderland’s largest mono-employer, show. Yet this is currently an area of almost non-existent practice and sporadic, inconsistent action, at best, from government and business.
Taking a more pragmatic view, it is possible to anticipate and plan for green job change with local workforces. When working with local authorities, integrated planning for fair green economic growth relies on the following:
- Local workforce transition planning: assessing local job market change and adaptation to understand the distribution and timescale of jobs that will not survive the green shift and those that will emerge through transition, in order to audit arising skills and workforce needs and to work with businesses strategically to support the local economy to thrive through these shifts.
- Local economic resilience planning: understanding job density and diversification, in order to have a plan for where people will work – particularly in the short-term as ‘non-green’ jobs die out and ‘green’ economies build.
- ‘Whole place’ planning, including the risk of stranded people, stranded communities, and stranded assets (from buildings to heritage to technology and systems to community assets reliant on outgoing industries). Meanwhile, plan for communities and assets to preserve quality of life and connectivity and to avoid a decline in services and neighbourhoods and an increase in isolation[A2] .
- Education and skills planning, including the design of reskilling and upskilling schemes, integrated skills pathways, and a strong potential for the reinstation of a model of regional or local skills advisory panels. Supporting people to participate in the green economy is of key importance and requires a shift in our education system design, and in how we engage, upskill and steward people through transition, as jobs change.
- Social and employee protection planning to design schemes and social support when employees, communities, and assets may be temporarily stranded, in order to maintain dignity, uphold social justice and avoid poverty, unemployment, and backsliding on the social determinants of health.
- Heritage, culture, and justice considerations: ways of working with a community to preserve heritage from outgoing industrial, agricultural, or manufacturing histories, and to address related justice and representation concerns.
Planning for all these areas is needed to ‘get Britain working’ through ‘just’ green growth. Particularly in what looks to be a tight fiscal first year for the new Labour Government, this can only be achieved through the smart development of existing workstreams in local authorities – and by mobilising the resources of the private sector through public-private partnerships. This needs a coordinated effort between local authorities, businesses, and unions, in order to build just transition strategies with local growth plans and to build just transition strategies within mid-term business planning or within sustainability and social value strategies for energy companies, businesses, and manufacturers. It also needs dedicated leadership to supportively work with the regions – a just transition to a green economy would be a good step. Where devolution deserts exist, there is an even greater need to ensure regions do not lose out or fall behind.
A Path Forward for Green Growth
Positively, The Young Foundation’s research shows that the promise of green jobs, upskilling, and new industries for local economies are vital for people accepting and endorsing the green transition, and in adopting other green behaviours and adjustments to their way of life. Planned well – and embracing these opportunities – the UK can build participation in and enthusiasm for just green growth across the nation.
For more of Chamber UK’s analysis on the green transition, please click here.