Crime is a tough issue for politicians to grapple with. Balancing the various levels of devolution on policies including national security, policing and taxation, with the rise of new forms of criminal activity including tax fraud, organised crime (principally through people smuggling) and cybercrimes, a new government will have plenty on its plate.
Less Crime, More Confidence
Following numerous damning reports on the Met police, crime rising in many parts of the country, and an increasing focus nation-wide on domestic and international security, Labour have pushed confidence in policing as a pillar of their policy on crime and justice. Whether that involves keeping streets safe or tackling the criminal gangs, Starmer has opted for hard rhetoric, with Labour even having launched an anti-Liberal Democrat campaign in 2022, calling Liberal Democrats soft on crime for wanting to legalise drugs (which seemingly backfired after Labour’s own members seemed to sympathise with Liberal Democrat policy).
As the campaign goes on, Starmer is unlikely to want to alienate red wall voters who tend to favour stronger approaches to criminal activity. Furthermore, with a strong performance at PCC elections in 2024, as well as high-profile Labour mayor Sadiq Khan having been reelected, Starmer may well see this as an opportunity to use harsh rhetoric, whilst in practice, delegating a softer approach to devolved authorities.
A difficult record on crime, and a promise for more
Whilst the Conservatives offer similar rhetoric on smashing gangs and strengthening our police force, they face a different challenge. Not only has the turnover of home secretaries been high, and led to confusion on exactly what the conservatives are proposing, but a number of negative press headlines has thrown into question whether the Conservatives have what put money where their mouth is.
Overcrowded prisons (which even led to plans of court cases delayed or inmates being released early to free up space), data on the lack of crimes being solved and scathing reports on police forces including the Case Review, people are beginning to lose trust in the Conservatives. With Reform UK also looking to pick up voters who put crime high on their list of priorities, the Tories are likely to face a pincer movement from two parties far less bogged down with negative headlines.
Whilst Conservatives have historically been seen as the party of law and order, it is likely that they face difficulty in convincing the population, on the back of their shaky credentials. With a soft correlation between illegal boat crossings across the channel and criminal activity (with illegal boat crossings often being organised by people traffickers exploiting refugees and asylum seekers), expect Rwanda and a tough stance on immigration to find its way at the forefront of any argument on the justice service, alongside proposals to hire more police officers.
Tough on Crime, Big on Ideas
Alongside the hard rhetoric on crime promoted by major parties, smaller parties are also prepared to campaign for big ideas in this policy area. Liberal Democrats are expected to continue their longstanding commitment to legalising cannabis, as well as overhauling parts of the justice service, to be incorporated into the public health service. Such moves are overshadowed only by the Green Party’s own policy to create a regulated market for all drugs, tailored based on the individual harm of each individual drugs (in related news, British Columbia, Canada, has trialled the temporary decriminalisation of small amounts of illicit drugs including opioids, cocaine, methamphetamine and MDMA).
Final Thought
Whilst crime is a big area of any general election, the statistics on voter interest in the policy area might paint a gloomier picture for the Conservatives. With YouGov estimating only 21% of voters considering crime to be in their top 3 most important issues facing the country, it is likely that any policy discourse over crime does not attract many voters. Furthermore, crime features very highly in Conservative voters, but far less so in Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, suggesting that Conservatives are playing a defensive game, as opposed to attempting to pick up voters from others.
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