In the early 2020s, the focus on internationalism had never been greater. The global Covid-19 pandemic made countries cooperate like never before (even the swift closing of borders required tailored cooperation on goods exports and border control). The Russian War on Ukraine caused the largest number of sanctions (over 10s of thousands and counting) on Russia, along with new levels of international cooperation on defence, finance and food production. The conflict in the Middle-East threatens a regional war that international actors across the world have been trying to prevent, and further international crises that are less frequently reported on (Sudan, South Sudan, Burkina Faso and Myanmar to name a few), continue to roll on
But in the face of these mounting (and often, ongoing) international crises, the meeting of the 4 leaders of NATO’s largest countries may end up involving leaders distracted by domestic politics. In fact, Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who will be meeting with US President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, may well be the only leader who, off the back of a resounding election victory, will have the headspace to consider foreign policy!
Joe Biden: Who again?
On July 21st 2024, Joe Biden went from one of the most talked about politicians, to being seen as another politician on his way out of mainstream politics (albeit, often considered noble and duty-bound for doing so). The announcement of him stepping down snapped media coverage and voter attention away from him, and quickly to the democrat nominee, Kamala Harris (and of course, Donald Trump as her Republican counterpart).
So with only a few weeks until the US election, and a few months until Biden is replaced as US President, where is the political attraction to him as a President? He is unlikely to make major policy announcements that risk upending the US election, nor will he be in a dynamic campaigning mode, risking making headlines for unfavourable reasons: expect carefully curated press releases about supporting NATO, the occasional photo op with world leaders, and the occasional roundtable with world leaders.
Emmanuel Macron: Trouble in Paradise
The rhetoric shared by the French leader is enough to soothe any internationalist. A more united EU, a strong European defence pillar for NATO, and continued support for Ukraine. But whilst Macron’s words may speak of optimism, the troubled French Government back in l’Elysée will likely be on the forefront of his mind.
A snap election held in late June/Early July, over two rounds, gave rise to the dramatic outcome of the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), an alliance of left wing to hard left parties with hard-left Melenchon as figurehead, claiming the greatest number of seats. To make matters more embarrassing for Macron, the election had Marine Le-Pen’s hard-right Rassemblement National (RN) party claim the greatest number of votes (over 33% in both rounds) out of all the parties. Only thanks to an electoral pact with NFP, did Macron’s ‘Ensemble’, itself an alliance of centre-left to centre-right parties, survive as the second largest party in the Parliament.
Last month, with no clear majority and ongoing refusals to work with certain politicians (both Melenchon and Le Pen are persona non-grata for the other major parties), Macron appointed centre-right, eurocrat and the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, as Prime Minister. With each party holding the ability to vote down the French PM’s budget (seen as being the key first test of Barnier’s tenancy), all eyes will be on whether Barnier can balance tax reforms, public spending, immigration and a number of policy points to attract support.
At the NATO Summit, expect Macron to continue strong rhetoric, with an eye se on domestic affairs. Will he be able to secure concessions form allies on immigration or government spending (for instance, on defence?)
Olaf Scholz: Will an International Presence Save his Polling?
With his SPD party trailing in the polls (31% for centre right CDU/CSU, 19% for the far-right AfD and 16% for the centre-left SPD), and damaging electoral performances at key recent regional elections, Scholz will be acutely aware of the need to recover ahead of the Autumn 2025 Federal Elections in Germany. With Germany having been a historically frugal nation when it comes to defence spending, the NATO Summit will prove another opportunity for Scholz to showcase his domestic politics.
At this NATO Summit, the Middle-East will also be a greatly discussed topic. Under Scholz, Germany has continued to offer arms sales to Israel with no arms embargo, although briefings have hinted at Germany recently blocking arms sales until Tel Aviv could confirm they would not be used on civilians. With an increasing number of states looking to deescalate tensions, amidst Israel’s offensive on South Lebanon and the successful killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, and polling from public broadcasted ARD suggesting close to 70% of German’s oppose the Israeli military offensive in Gaza, perhaps Scholz will look at this Summit as a way to appeal to voters domestically and change his rhetoric on the conflict in the Middle-East.
Keir Starmer: Domestic Success = International Success?
Whilst the other leaders may be facing doom and gloom, the new Prime Minister of the UK will be attending the summit with anything but doom and gloom (at least internationally-speaking). Looking to reset ties between the UK and European partners, in particular after the chaotic Brexit years, and with defence being a key sector not extensively covered by EU treaties, this NATO summit offers more opportunity than risk for the Labour leader.
As his Foreign Secretary, David Lammy goes to China for delicate diplomacy, Starmer will look at this NATO Summit as an opportunity to show his leadership on the international stage. Could this translate into favourable trading relations to help his Government’s top mission of growth? Will European counterparts be captivated by Starmer’s leadership and support him on issues like immigration? Whilst the stakes of the newly-elected Prime Minister may be lower than for his counterparts, the opportunities are seemingly limitless.
Final thought
As leaders across the country look to Summits like today’s with an expectation of huge policy announcements that will shift the course of foreign policy, it is likely that this Summit acts as a tool for many political leaders to accomplish domestic targets. Whilst lobbyists and ambassadors will continue to push agendas, when the major players have domestic concerns that threaten their own political parties, and therefore, their holding of Government, policy will take a far more domestic focus… who knows what will happen within a few weeks, when the results of the US Election are announced…
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