A historic deal to transition away from fossil fuels has been agreed at COP28 in Dubai after days of negotiations. This has been hailed by the United Nations as “the beginning of the end for the fossil fuel era”.
The “Global Stocktake Agreement” was labelled by COP28 president Sultan al-Jaber as the UAE Consensus. He said that it was a plan “led by the science” with commitments to meet the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement. “We have language on fossil fuels in our final agreement for the first time ever,” al-Jaber, who is chief executive of the UAE’s state oil company, added.
The price of crude oil took a dip soon after the announcement was made.
COP28:
The 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference or Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC, more commonly known as COP28, was the 28th United Nations Climate Change conference. The chief aim of COP is to figure out how to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5C – which experts say would limit the very worst impacts of warming.
Regarding the agreement to transition away from fossil fuels, Opec and Opec+ countries such as Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq were critical to limiting a stronger declaration to “phase out” fossil fuels.
Crucially then, the term “transition away” symbolises a watering down of environmental commitments; phasing out fossil fuels would require countries to gradually lower how much they make and use until they reached zero. The deal agreed in Dubai calls for “reducing” them – bringing down how much a country relies on fossil fuels, without requiring a target of zero.
Running to more than 20 pages and nearly 200 clauses, the Global Stocktake Agreement:
- Calls on countries to transition away from fossil fuels
- Recognises that emissions will peak in the future but this depends on a country’s development
- Acknowledges that wealthier nations are not providing enough financial assistance to poorer countries to help them cope with climate change
- Fails to mention methane emissions which is the most potent greenhouse gas
Developing countries still need hundreds of billions more in finance, to help them make the transition away from coal, oil and gas. Therefore, they will not be forced to move as fast as climate science urges. However, some delegates from developing countries expressed concerns. For example, the delegate from Nigeria stated that some of the outcomes could be “suffocating” to developing countries if they are not provided help to transition, like money and technology.
The delegate from Ghana also criticised the text for setting a timeline on fossil fuels but staying vague on the sources of other greenhouse gases – in particular, the expectations it would create for developing countries.
Moreover, The delegate for Paraguay welcomes the agreement but points out that “we need to see a big increase in climate financing” and wants the contributions of developed and developing countries to be differentiated. “Developing countries can not give up the right to development – this is an inalienable human right” she stated.
Senegal has also raised concerns about climate finance, which, their delegate said, must be of key importance. “We are fighting for our survival, and we are fighting for climate justice” their delegate asserted.
Responses
UN climate secretary Simon Stiell followed said that Cop28 had needed to send a signal on humanity’s core climate problem – fossil fuels and their planet-burning pollution. “Whilst we didn’t turn the page on the fossil fuel era in Dubai, this outcome is the beginning of the end,” he said.
UN environment chief Inger Andersen said “the deal is not perfect, but one thing is clear: the world is no longer denying our harmful addiction to fossil fuels. Now we move beyond bargaining to action. This means real action on a rapid transition away from fossil fuels, especially for the G20. To have any hope of doing this in line with what the science demands of us, we must unleash far greater finance to support countries in a just, equitable and clean transition, which is especially important for developing nations that must leapfrog to low-carbon development. We have the solutions; we know what needs to be done. And action can no longer wait.”
Moreover, former chief of Greenpeace, Jennifer Morgan, describes the text as a “big step” in creating a “just and sustainable world”.
Leading climate scientists at the university of Exeter have also reacted to the agreement. Richard Betts said: “The global stocktake quotes lots of sound science highlighting the urgency of the situation we are in, and this is to be applauded. However, it’s worrying that the Dubai negotiations went ahead on the basis of a misunderstanding of how close we are now to reaching 1.5C global warming. The text gives observed warming as ‘about 1.1C’, but this is already out of date – the actual current global warming level is about 1.3C. While this is clearly not the main reason why the agreement falls short of what is needed, it may have contributed to a reduced sense of urgency.”
James Dyke said: “Cop28 needed to deliver an unambiguous statement about the rapid phase out of fossil fuels. That would represent a rupture from previous Cops and business as usual – which is what is needed now, given record-breaking global temperature and greenhouse gas emissions. Unfortunately, that did not happen. While the agreement’s call for the need to transition away from fossil fuels is welcome, it has numerous caveats and loopholes that risks rendering it meaningless when it comes to our efforts to limit warming to well below 2C. That this deal has been hailed as a landmark is more a measure of previous failures than any step change when it comes to the increasingly urgent need to rapidly stop burning coal, oil and gas.”
Final thought
While the deal in Dubai might be the biggest step forward since the Paris agreement, by itself it will likely not be enough to keep global temperatures under the key 1.5C threshold. The world has continued to pile up emissions in the atmosphere from the use of fossil fuels at historic rates – and those gases will continue to warm the world for centuries.
The US will also get away lightly from COP28, having pledged just over $20m in new finance for developing countries, and with its position as the world’s biggest oil and gas producer intact.
In the longer term, the agreement on transitioning away from fossil fuels for energy systems, may help the world to get to closer to net zero by 2050. The hope will be that the commitment in the new deal to triple renewables and energy efficiency by 2030, will see wind and solar replace coal, oil and gas.
One area where the new deal could make a big difference is relating to the actions of individual countries. All are now required to submit stronger carbon cutting plans by 2025. If China and India put a rapid transition to green energy at the heart of their new plans, that could make a massive difference.