With Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah appearing to consider the assassinations of Hezbollah members “a declaration of war”, the road to de-escalation is increasingly unlikely. Despite this, Foreign Secretary David Lammy has made clear his support for an immediate ceasefire along the Lebanon Israeli border.
Can the government be successful in de-escalating the conflict?
How Have Labour Addressed the Conflict?
Although facing significant criticism by their own supporters for their perceived weakness on Gaza following February, Labour’s policy departed significantly from the Conservatives. Labour endorsed the eventual recognition of a Palestinian state and a push for the immediate implementation of Biden’s ‘three-stage’ ceasefire deal.
However, as the Conservatives time in office came to a close, the gap between Conservative and Labour policy began to shrink. In June, likely under American pressure, the Conservative Government voted in favour of Biden’s ceasefire plan in the UN.
Additionally, Labour has privately wheeled back on immediate recognition of Palestine, stating that it would do so as part of a broader peace plan, a position identical to that of the Conservatives.
However, since coming into office, Labour have pursued a slightly more proactive policy on Gaza.
What has Labour Done in Government?
Earlier this month, the Government withdrew export licenses for arms feared to be connected to alleged Israeli war crimes. On Wednesday, the UK abstained on a UN general Assembly resolution calling for Israel to withdraw to its pre-1967 border within twelve months and for other member states to end arms sales with Israel.
However, more than an abstention, the Government implied that it leaned more in favour than against. In their official statement, the Government said that the abstention meant to “indicate our clear view that Israel should bring an end to its presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territories as rapidly as possible”.
The Government has argued that these methods are designed to bring about an equitable ceasefire in Gaza and a sustainable peace solution.
Israel is less convinced.
Prime Minister Netenyahu has called the decision to partially suspend arms exports “shameful” and stating that history will remember those who oppose Israeli actions in Gaza in the same light as those who opposed Britain’s “heroic” stand against Nazi Germany.
Despite this, British public opinion is overwhelmingly behind the Government’s policy.
This shift in attitude has not been taken well by either the Israeli government or the Israeli people at large. The Jerusalem post stated that Wednesday’s resolution was designed to “strip Israel of right to self-defense” in Gaza and the West Bank.
In this context, British diplomatic pressure will likely be less effective.
Can the UK Stop All-Out War?
In comparison to our European neighbours, the UK’s response has been less harsh in condemning the operation. Josep Borell, the head of EU Foreign and Security Policy, described the explosions as “indiscriminate” and “designed to spread terror”.
The “concern” regarding civilian casualties expressed by Development Minister Anneliese Dodds did, however, indicate a more critical stance than that of Anthony Blinken. All Israeli allies called for a de-escalation of the conflict.
David Lammy called for an “immediate ceasefire from both sides”.Unfortunately, this does not look likely.
A few days ago, Israel announced its intention to demilitarise the south of Lebanon. Hezbollah and the IDF are currently reported to be engaging in hostilities. Israeli public opinion appears to back this move.
Final Thought
In pushing for a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, the UK’s leverage looks limited. Israeli government opinion has soured significantly since Labour came into office. Meanwhile, popular support for an offensive in South Lebanon among Israelis makes the prospect of Netenyahu’s hard-right government backing down seem unlikely.
Nevertheless, whilst Nasrallah has been often headlined as calling the explosions “a declaration of war”, Hezbollah has repeatedly bluffed about escalation into full-scale war with Israel, not just over the last year, but since the 2006 war. Although Hezbollah has vowed retaliation, it may be seeking to de-escalate the conflict whilst not losing face.
It may, however, have little choice. Both the Israeli public and their government are strongly in favour of a full-scale offensive in southern Lebanon.