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Calls for better public health planning as dementia cases triple by 2050

Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase, say researchers.

A global study, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures predicts that by 2050, more than 153 million people could have dementia, up from 57 million in 2019. The report published in The Lancet Public Health journal warns that unhealthy lifestyles are contributing to the rise too. In the UK, cases will rise from just over 907,000 to almost 1.6 million.

In 2019, an estimated 907,000 people in the UK had dementia, about one in 74 people. By 2050, this number is projected to increase by 75 per cent to 1.6 million people, or about one in 46 people.

The study looked at 195 countries, giving governments background on the scale of resources and supported needed to tackle the forthcoming problem. In the 2010-2015 Coalition Government, David Cameron sought an international solution to the growing problem of Alzheimer’s disease, yet little has come from the global community.

The World Health Organization highlights that dementia is the seventh leading cause of death worldwide and one of the major causes of disability and dependency among older people.

In more positive news, the study highlighted the growing body of evidence from Europe suggesting a decreasing trend in dementia incidence, potentially due to “increases in educational attainment and improvements in the management of cardiovascular disease and its risk factors.”

Lead author Emma Nichols, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, at the University of Washington, in the US, said: “We need to focus more on prevention and control of risk factors before they result in dementia.

“Even modest advances in preventing dementia or delaying its progression would pay remarkable dividends.

“To have the greatest impact, we need to reduce exposure to the leading risk factors in each country.

“For most, this means scaling up locally appropriate, low-cost programmes that support healthier diets, more exercise, quitting smoking and better access to education.”

Commenting on the research the Chief Executive of Alzheimer’s Research UK, Hilary Evans said:

“Dementia is our greatest long-term medical challenge. These striking figures lay bare the shocking scale of dementia across the world. Today there are already 57 million people too many living with this devastating condition, and we need to see concerted global action to avoid this number tripling.”

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