The last few weeks have seen an increasingly dramatic situation in Bangladesh. With protestors storming her residence, last week saw Bangladesh’s longest serving Prime Minister flee to India in a military aircraft. How will the UK respond?
Does the UK support the new government?
Whilst initially cautious of the interim government established by the Bangladeshi military on the 5th of August, Foreign Secretary David Lammy “welcomed” the appointment of Nobel Prize winner Professor Muhammad Yunus as the civilian head of the government four days later. The UK has generally emphasised measures to ‘restore calm’ and ‘de-escalate’.
The UK has significant interests in Bangladesh. Over the course of last year, the Sunak ministry attempted to expand trade relations with Bangladesh, as part of the conservative’s broader ‘Asia pivot’, which argued that the UK should closer align with ‘growth engines’.
The United Kingdom is Bangladesh’s third largest trading partner, with roughly 3.5 billion in bilateral trade last year. Although the UK is more important to the Bangladeshi economy than Bangladeshi to the UK, Bangladesh has an outsized role in textiles, with 28% of British consumed textiles coming from the country.
Although the economy has seen incredible growth in recent years, Bangladesh’s post-independence chaos from 1971-1990 saw economic stagnation. Despite being highly autocratic and authoritarian, Sheikh has overseen a comparatively stable political environment.
British interests are of course more than economic. The breakdown of order in Bangladesh could cause chaos in the region and beyond. Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Bengal have operated in the country for a decade.
Will the UK condemn religious violence?
Last week, demonstrators in in London took to the streets to protest the escalating violence against Bangladesh’s religious minorities, particularly Hindus. The breakdown of order has seen particular violence committed against Hindus.
Sectarian violence in Bangladesh has a long history.
During the 1971 Bangladeshi Genocide which birthed the Bangladeshi state, Hindus were disproportionately targeted. With India playing a decisive role in Bangladesh’s independence war that followed, the newly ruling Awami League proclaimed secularism, finding immense support among Bangladesh’s religious minorities. Hasina has outwardly continued the secular tradition of her party.
In contrast, the opposition Bangladeshi National Party (BNP), has historically been considered to have Islamist tendencies. Upon winning a plurality in the 2001 elections, the BNP entered into coalition with the hard-line Jamaat-e-Islami party, an organisation widely alleged to have played a significant role in the genocide. The aftermath of the 2001 election saw significant violence against Hindus.
In recent years, however, the BNP have attempted to shed this reputation, appointing Hindus to significant positions and arguing that the Awami League has taken advantage of Hindus as a captive voting bloc. Despite this, members of the BNP have been linked to violent hate crimes against Hindus over the last few years.
Because of this political structure, Hindus are often associated with the Awami League as well as India itself. Although many protestors attempted to protect Hindu areas from mob-violence, many rioters have targeted Hindus and their property.
As well as the violence of the protests themselves, it seems likely that the BNP will play a leading role in the post-interim government.
In spite of protests, no official statement has been put out by the UK government specifically on violence against Hindus. Although likely focused on extra-judicial murders carried out by security forces, the UK’s blanket condemnation of violence is the closest statement to this so far.
Why does Hasina want to come to the UK?
After her resignation, the Indian foreign ministry quickly confirmed that the former Prime Minister has been given asylum in India “for the moment”. Indian media has reported that Hasina was contemplating seeking asylum in the UK, something that has since been picked up British news outlets.
Whilst her connections in exile in India were vital in pressuring Bangladesh to permit Awami League participation in politics, the connections to the United States government made in her exile in the UK were generally seen as the most significant in altering Bangladesh’s ban on her participation.
Additionally, Pakistan’s first female prime minister found herself in a similar situation.
Upon seeking asylum in the UK, Benazir Bhutto used her position in the UK to convince not only the British government, but the United States to apply pressure to Pakistan in allowing Bhutto to return to the country. Sajeeb Wazed Joy, the son of Sheikh Hasina has claimed that the deposed prime minister intends to return to the country when new elections are declared.
Despite Bangladesh being a recipient of China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’, the United States is still the largest source of foreign direct investment to the country. Although the new government has pledged to not upset Indian interests too significantly, it’s hard to imagine that future government will continue to be as pro-New Delhi in orientation as the Hassina ministry.
Because of this, Hassina likely sees the United Kingdom as the best placed destination to allow for her return to Bangladeshi politics. The other main factor is her family connections to the UK.
Will the UK let Her in?
So far, the response from the UK to these claims has been non-existent.
Speculation regarding Hasina Sheikh’s movement to the UK often centers around the fact that her niece Tulip Siddiq, serves as a junior minister in the treasury.
Siddiq has yet to publicly comment on the situation.
Sources told politico that due to her connection to other scandals, Siddiq is facing significant pressure from the party. Given the optics of the situation, it seems highly unlikely that the UK would allow Hassina in.
This comes in combination with the previously mentioned open hostility among several government backbenchers towards Hassina.
The Home Office has yet to confirm or deny the possibility of Hassina claiming asylum. This looks more like a refusal to acknowledge the claim’s legitimacy than ambiguity.
Final Thought
Despite being almost five thousand miles away, the events of the last few weeks have had a profound impact on the politics of South Asia, one which the United Kingdom cannot entirely isolate itself from. The UK appears to be taking a relatively distanced approach, pledging its support for attempts to establish democratic rule whilst emphasising the need for peace among all parties.
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