The Government’s position is gaining increasing criticism within the party, not only among the left, but moderates. What is motivating the Prime Minister to maintain this position, and can anything convince him to shift?
There are strong electoral reasons to support the two-child benefit cap.
Polling this week showed that the majority of the British public support retaining the cap, and most notably, so do a plurality of Labour voters. Labour Members and MPs are far less supportive.
Writing for The Times yesterday, Rosie Duffield MP called the cap ‘heinous’ and described her opposition to it as the main reason she first stood as an MP in 2017. Duffield’s position is far from uncommon among Labour activists. Since its inception in 2017, Labour Party officials have heavily condemned the cap.
Of particular controversy is the so-called ‘rape-clause’, which requires women who have conceived a child “as a result of a sexual act which you didn’t or couldn’t consent to” to provide evidence of rape. A woman is ineligible for the ‘rape clause’ if she still lives with the partner.
In 2017, Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale called it a policy “that would have caused anger and astonishment if Margaret Thatcher had introduced it in the 1980s”.
Combining accusations of classism and misogyny, it’s hard to think of a policy that would anger Labour Party activists more.
It is no surprise that opposition to the cap has been massive, even within traditional Starmer allies within the Labour party.
Why does Starmer not support the Benefit Cap?
There are likely two elements to Starmer’s decision to not scrap the cap. On the one hand, there’s a simple electoral calculation. Regardless of the thoughts of Labour Party members, most people oppose it. However, there exists the more immediate consideration of the strength of the Government
The Government is terrified of looking like it can be dragged around by its own MPs. The projection of strong leadership is perhaps the single motivating objective of the government’s party policy.
There’s a good reason for this. Before Tony Blair, Labour’s last government was under James Callaghan who ruled from 1976-1979. Callaghan’s government was defined by his backbench, who were able to completely control the party.
Beginning with the Rooker-Wise amendment of 1977, when backbenchers were able to change government policy, Callaghan’s government was progressively undermined until parliament ended it in a motion of no confidence. Labour’s 18 years out of power was defined by the inability of its leader to enforce a party-line.
New Labour’s success is in part credited to its ability to present a united front in the face of division. Starmer has been open about the need to adopt the party unity of Blair. On December 11 1997 Blair was faced by similar divisions as Starmer does today, when MPs revolted against his decision to cut benefits for single parents.
Rather than causing division in the party, the maintenance of the party line and the sacking of rebel Alice Mahon indicated that the party would not budge and that attempts to disrupt the Government would be punished. Starmer likely hopes to replicate Blair in upholding an uncompromising Party Line.
Like Blair, following a period of an infighting opposition, Starmer believes that even slight plasticity by his government will be seen as a weakness to be taken advantage of by backbenchers.
What could cause Starmer to change his mind?
It is important to remember that Keir Starmer has not outright opposed the Child Benefit Cap. The King’s speech announced a ‘taskforce’ which would examine the reasons for Child Poverty before prescribing a number of policies. Starmer has made clear that he will wait for this taskforce to give its findings before he makes a decision.
In fact, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson has announced that Labour would support revising the cap “as one of a number of ways” to address child poverty. Whilst possibly a protest against the Government, this is most likely a way of indicating that Labour will scrap the policy eventually.
Indications from the Government imply that Starmer will eventually scrap the policy, however, he needs to do it in a way that shows that policies will be dictated top-down rather than bottom-up.
Final Thought
As was explained in Chamber UK’s coverage of the King’s speech amendments, Starmer does not want MPs to believe that he will change government policy based on those amendments.
If Labour eventually does give in, it will be done in a way to show that that’s absolutely not what’s happening. Labour will make sure to leave as big a gap as possible between Labour MPs voting on amendments to support scrapping the cap and them actually doing it.
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This article was written by Chamber UK’s features writer – Alex Connor.