The Conservative Party has faced a significant setback in the recent elections, experiencing its most substantial loss in years. Over half of its councillors seeking re-election in England were defeated.
This is the last big test of public opinion before a general election. However, it is important to acknowledge that the local election results are only partially useful for working out the national picture because independents feature more strongly in local votes and there were no contests in Scotland or Northern Ireland.
With Labour gaining 180 council seats, and the Conservative losing almost 500, the future looks bleak for the Conservative Party.
Labour’s Electoral Success:
Labour made significant gains in the recent elections, securing over 180 council seats and claiming control of eight councils, including traditional bellwether areas like Milton Keynes and Nuneaton. They also took control of ten councils, such as Redditch and Rushmoor, the latter being the home of the British Army, which they directly wrestled from Conservative control.
In pivotal wards, Labour’s vote share saw a notable increase of 3% compared to the previous elections in 2021, demonstrating growing support among voters. Notable victories include the by-election triumph in Blackpool South, where they achieved a remarkable 26% swing from the Tories, and Richard Parker’s victory over incumbent Tory Andy Street in the West Midlands mayoral race.
While Labour’s success in the North East was expected, their victory in the East Midlands, a region anticipated to be a crucial battleground in the upcoming general election, is particularly noteworthy. Additionally, winning in York and North Yorkshire, which includes Rishi Sunak’s constituency, provided the party with significant confidence.
Furthermore, Sadiq Khan secured a third term as London mayor, reaffirming Labour’s stronghold in the capital.
Implications for the Tories:
The Conservative Party faced a substantial blow, losing over 470 councillors, nearly half of the seats it had previously held. Notably, it relinquished several council seats to the Liberal Democrats.
Despite these losses, there’s a noticeable hesitation among the Prime Minister’s internal critics to initiate a leadership challenge.
On a positive note for the Tories, Tory incumbent Ben Houchen secured a third term as Tees Valley Mayor, prompting senior party figures to assert that the Conservatives still maintain a competitive stance for the upcoming general election.
However, the Conservative vote share experienced its sharpest decline in areas that strongly supported Brexit. This trend raises concerns about Labour’s potential to convert its increased voter support into parliamentary seats, especially in working-class, pro-Brexit constituencies where the Conservatives made gains in previous elections.
Analysis of Minor Parties:
The recent elections showcased a promising outcome for smaller political parties, signaling their potential to challenge the dominance of larger political parties.
The Liberal Democrats and Greens made significant strides, securing victories in council seats strategically targeted for the upcoming general election. This demonstrated their capacity to pose a credible threat to the Conservatives in specific regions.
Noteworthy gains were made by the Liberal Democrats, who added 104 councillors to their ranks and clinched victories in areas such as Tunbridge Wells and Dorset. However, their attempts to gain control of West Oxfordshire and Wokingham fell short.
Similarly, the Greens enjoyed substantial success, with over 70 seats won, including a notable presence in Bristol City Council with 10 seats. Their increased vote share in areas characterised by significant Muslim and student populations underscores their expanding appeal.
Despite fielding a limited number of candidates, the Reform Party left a mark in the Blackpool South by-election, securing the third position and trailing the Tory candidate by a narrow margin of 117 votes. This performance suggests a potential shift in political allegiances, with a considerable portion of the Tory vote diverting to Labour and a notable segment moving towards the Reform Party.
Final Thought: What Do these Local Election Results Indicate for the General Election?
Whilst the overall picture is complicated, it is clear that the conservative vote has “collapsed” since 2021 and Labour has made huge gains. Based on local election figures, Sky News projects Labour is on course to be the largest party in parliament – but falls short of a Commons majority by 32 seats.
It is important to note, that in reality not all constituencies will behave in exactly the same way in the upcoming general election.
To read more of Chamber’s electoral analysis please click here.